加拿大人正成群外流，移居海外人数创近年新高

Canadians Are Packing Up For Greener Pastures, Emigration Hits Multi-Year High

加拿大人正在收拾行囊，寻找更理想的生活，而这次他们的目的地不再是从多伦多到卡尔加里。根据加拿大统计局（Stat Can）2024年第三季度的数据，加拿大的移民流出（Emigration）出现了大幅增长，即居民永久性移居至其他国家的趋势加剧。

Canadians are packing up for greener pastures, and that doesn’t mean Toronto to Calgary. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data for Q3 2024 shows a sharp uptick for emigration, the process of residents leaving to settle permanently in another country.

第三季度通常是移民流出的高峰期，而今年的数字更是创下近年来的新高。事实上，这一季度的移民外流量是自1967年加拿大正式制定移民制度以来的第五大季度性流出记录。

The third quarter is typically big, but this one was one of the largest in years. In fact, the quarterly outflow is the 5th largest since Canada formalized its immigration system back in 1967.

什么是移民流出？| What Is Emigration?

今天我们关注的是加拿大的移民流出情况。移民流出与移民进入相反，指的是加拿大居民永久迁往其他国家。

Today we’re looking at Canada’s emigration outflows. Emigrants are the reverse of immigrants—Canadians that are leaving to settle somewhere else permanently.

政策制定者通常更关注净移民流动（Net Emigration），即流入和流出的总体平衡。但这种方式忽略了移民流出的深层次影响，我们称之为**“人力资本畜牧模式”**——即政府只关注人口总数，而不关心这些人为什么离开、他们的社会贡献或技能水平。

Policymakers typically ignore this number in favor of net emigration, which is the balance of flow. We call this the human capital livestock approach—it doesn’t matter what the person does or why they’re leaving, they just want more than less.

这种方法存在诸多问题，其中最关键的是政府未能重视人口留存。

This is problematic for a lot of reasons, but the biggest is the fact they’re not worried about retention.

移民外流背后的风险：生活质量的恶化？| A Sustained Increase Can Indicate Erosion In Quality of Life

持续增长的移民外流可能意味着生活质量正在下降。即使部分人未来可能会选择回流，但他们返回时的职业阶段、经济贡献可能与离开时不同——比如，一个高技能劳动者离开后，回流的可能是退休人士，这种人口流动并不对等。

A sustained increase can be related to an erosion in quality of life. Those returning aren’t necessarily at the same part of their career or contribute differently to the economy—losing a prime aged worker and gaining a retiree isn’t quite the same.

此外，返回的移民可能对国内现状缺乏了解，未必能认识到当初促使他们离开的真正原因。这可能会导致他们在未来再次选择离开。

Those returning may also remember the country differently, and not know the factors driving people away. That may result in those same people leaving at a later date.

如果政府忽视移民流出的原因，并且未能在事态恶化前采取措施，最终的损害可能会变得不可逆。

Failing to figure out why people are leaving, or at a faster rate, can result in ignoring damage that may become irreparable by the time it’s addressed. Risk happens fast.

加拿大缺乏全面的移民外流数据，官方统计可能被高估 | Canada Lacks Comprehensive Exit Data, Leading To Overestimation

更令人担忧的是，加拿大目前缺乏完善的移民外流统计数据。政府只有在居民正式申报离境时，才会将其列入移民外流统计，这导致加拿大高估了留在本国的移民人数。过去30年，加拿大的移民留存率被高估了大约六分之一。

There’s also the issue that we now understand that Canada doesn’t have comprehensive exit data. The country doesn’t consider people have left until they formally declare their absence, resulting in overestimating the immigrants that stayed by roughly 1 in 6 people for at least 30 years.

如果移民外流数据本身被低估，那么“净移民流动”指标并不能真实反映问题的严重性。

Net flows are of little consolation if they underestimate the outflows.

加拿大人正在以创纪录的速度移居海外 | Canadians Are Fleeing At One Of The Fastest Rates On Record

近年来，加拿大的移民外流呈现稳步上升趋势。2024年第三季度，移民流出人数达到29,100人，比上季度增长11.1%，比去年同期增长3%。

Canadian emigration had been on a steady climb over the past few years. The volume saw quarterly growth of 11.1% to 29,100 people in Q3 2024. That’s 3% higher than last year.

即使在传统的移民流出高峰——第三季度，今年的流出人数依然异常高企。这一季度的外流人数是自2019年第三季度以来最高的一次。而如果排除2016至2019年的异常年份，加拿大自1967年以来从未在第三季度出现如此大规模的移民流出。

Even for the third quarter, this volume was unusually large. It marks the largest volume since Q3 2019, seemingly picking up from where it left off. Outside of 2016 to 2019, Canada hasn’t seen more Q3 emigrants since 1967.

换句话说，加拿大正在经历一场罕见的人口外流潮。这种趋势已经多年未曾出现。

In other words, it was the fifth largest 3rd quarter for Canadians to flee the country since the country introduced Immigration Regulations.

加拿大移民体系的历史变迁 | A Look Back At Canada’s Immigration Regulations

值得注意的是，加拿大的移民体系在1967年迎来重大改革。在此之前，加拿大的移民政策存在种族歧视，而1967年的改革引入了积分制（Points System），以量化技能、学历和其他关键因素，确保移民能为国家作出贡献。

Those regulations banned immigration based on race and introduced a points system to prefer those who presented higher quantifiable skills and values to the country.

然而，今天的现实是，加拿大正面临前所未有的人才流失潮，这种趋势可能会对经济和社会产生深远影响。

In short, the recent trend is an outlier that Canada hasn’t seen in a friggin’ long time.

结论：加速的人才流失是警讯 | Conclusion: Rising Emigration Is A Warning Sign

加拿大正在经历几十年来最严重的移民外流潮，如果这一趋势得不到遏制，可能会影响未来的经济增长、劳动力市场乃至国家竞争力。

Canada is witnessing one of the worst emigration surges in decades, and if this trend isn’t addressed, it could impact economic growth, labor markets, and national competitiveness.

政府需要尽快查明居民流失的根本原因，并采取措施留住高技能人才，否则加拿大的人才外流问题可能会变得难以逆转。

The government needs to investigate the root causes of the outflow and take action to retain skilled workers, or Canada’s brain drain may become irreversible.